GET https://rct.dev.bbntimes.com/global-economy/why-the-next-ecb-stimulus-plan-may-fail

ArticleController :: show

Request

GET Parameters

None

POST Parameters

None

Uploaded Files

None

Request Attributes

Key Value
_controller
"App\Controller\ArticleController::show"
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_links
Symfony\Component\WebLink\GenericLinkProvider {#3671
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    3784 => Symfony\Component\WebLink\Link {#3784
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    3782 => Symfony\Component\WebLink\Link {#3782
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    3781 => Symfony\Component\WebLink\Link {#3781
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    3779 => Symfony\Component\WebLink\Link {#3779
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_route
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_security_firewall_run
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_stopwatch_token
"a8e36a"
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"global-economy"
slug
"why-the-next-ecb-stimulus-plan-may-fail"

Request Headers

Header Value
accept
"*/*"
accept-encoding
"gzip, br, zstd, deflate"
connection
"close"
cookie
"PHPSESSID=a9bg1uts3vlvs31odt8r0ru4s5"
host
"rct.dev.bbntimes.com"
user-agent
"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)"
x-php-ob-level
"1"

Request Content

Request content not available (it was retrieved as a resource).

Response

Response Headers

Header Value
cache-control
"no-cache, private"
content-type
"text/html; charset=UTF-8"
date
"Sat, 22 Feb 2025 08:49:44 GMT"
link
"</build/runtime.js>; rel="preload"; as="script",</build/644.js>; rel="preload"; as="script",</build/502.js>; rel="preload"; as="script",</build/app.js>; rel="preload"; as="script",</build/view-more.js>; rel="preload"; as="script",</build/term-condition.js>; rel="preload"; as="script",</build/contact.js>; rel="preload"; as="script",</build/scroll-infinite-article.js>; rel="preload"; as="script",</build/app.css>; rel="preload"; as="style",</build/cookie-style.css>; rel="preload"; as="style",</build/term-condition-css.css>; rel="preload"; as="style",</build/contact-css.css>; rel="preload"; as="style",</build/comment-css.css>; rel="preload"; as="style""
x-debug-token
"226d5f"

Cookies

Request Cookies

Key Value
PHPSESSID
"a9bg1uts3vlvs31odt8r0ru4s5"

Response Cookies

No response cookies

Session 6

Session Metadata

Key Value
Created
"Sat, 22 Feb 25 08:49:24 +0000"
Last used
"Sat, 22 Feb 25 08:49:42 +0000"
Lifetime
0

Session Attributes

Attribute Value
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"MU5-zn1g1pUXXN8JffNKC_ywOTBpFYLhvkxXxeY6bnY"
_csrf/https-cookie_accept
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Session Usage

6 Usages
Stateless check enabled
Usage
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Symfony\Component\Security\Core\Authentication\Token\Storage\UsageTrackingTokenStorage:41
[
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]
Symfony\Component\Security\Http\Firewall\ContextListener:171
[
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]

Flashes

Flashes

No flash messages were created.

Server Parameters

Server Parameters

Defined in .env

Key Value
APP_ENV
"dev"
APP_SECRET
"0a988e63f011514eaabfc650b599af4d"
CORS_ALLOW_ORIGIN
"*"
DATABASE_URL
"mysql://bbndb_rctuser:33F5W25z40or0f7@localhost:3306/rct_bbntimes"
GOOGLE_RECAPTCHA_SECRET_KEY
"6LdV5fgpAAAAANxzTG8ZMfIjil1wu-1vrQvnUt-x"
GOOGLE_RECAPTCHA_SITE_KEY
"6LdV5fgpAAAAAENKcn73MJAhQrbtQeqgyC4wDLMP"
MAILER_DSN
"smtp://no-reply%40rct.dev.bbntimes.com:Bl6%26gLD48%26Of919@rct.dev.bbntimes.com:465"
MARIADB_PASSWORD
"i!87pK&!85ezc8"

Defined as regular env variables

Key Value
APP_DEBUG
"1"
BASE
"/public"
CONTEXT_DOCUMENT_ROOT
"/var/www/vhosts/dev.bbntimes.com/rct.dev.bbntimes.com"
CONTEXT_PREFIX
""
DOCUMENT_ROOT
"/var/www/vhosts/dev.bbntimes.com/rct.dev.bbntimes.com"
FCGI_ROLE
"RESPONDER"
GATEWAY_INTERFACE
"CGI/1.1"
HTTPS
"on"
HTTP_ACCEPT
"*/*"
HTTP_ACCEPT_ENCODING
"gzip, br, zstd, deflate"
HTTP_CONNECTION
"close"
HTTP_COOKIE
"PHPSESSID=a9bg1uts3vlvs31odt8r0ru4s5"
HTTP_HOST
"rct.dev.bbntimes.com"
HTTP_USER_AGENT
"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)"
PASSENGER_COMPILE_NATIVE_SUPPORT_BINARY
"0"
PASSENGER_DOWNLOAD_NATIVE_SUPPORT_BINARY
"0"
PATH
"/usr/local/sbin:/usr/local/bin:/usr/sbin:/usr/bin:/sbin:/bin:/snap/bin"
PHP_SELF
"/public/index.php"
PP_CUSTOM_PHP_CGI_INDEX
"plesk-php81-fastcgi"
PP_CUSTOM_PHP_INI
"/var/www/vhosts/system/rct.dev.bbntimes.com/etc/php.ini"
QUERY_STRING
""
REDIRECT_BASE
"/public"
REDIRECT_HTTPS
"on"
REDIRECT_PASSENGER_COMPILE_NATIVE_SUPPORT_BINARY
"0"
REDIRECT_PASSENGER_DOWNLOAD_NATIVE_SUPPORT_BINARY
"0"
REDIRECT_REDIRECT_HTTPS
"on"
REDIRECT_REDIRECT_PASSENGER_COMPILE_NATIVE_SUPPORT_BINARY
"0"
REDIRECT_REDIRECT_PASSENGER_DOWNLOAD_NATIVE_SUPPORT_BINARY
"0"
REDIRECT_REDIRECT_SCRIPT_URI
"https://rct.dev.bbntimes.com/global-economy/why-the-next-ecb-stimulus-plan-may-fail"
REDIRECT_REDIRECT_SCRIPT_URL
"/global-economy/why-the-next-ecb-stimulus-plan-may-fail"
REDIRECT_REDIRECT_SSL_TLS_SNI
"rct.dev.bbntimes.com"
REDIRECT_REDIRECT_STATUS
"200"
REDIRECT_REDIRECT_UNIQUE_ID
"Z7mPp5DyWLT8YV1VjBo_swAAAIw"
REDIRECT_SCRIPT_URI
"https://rct.dev.bbntimes.com/global-economy/why-the-next-ecb-stimulus-plan-may-fail"
REDIRECT_SCRIPT_URL
"/global-economy/why-the-next-ecb-stimulus-plan-may-fail"
REDIRECT_SSL_TLS_SNI
"rct.dev.bbntimes.com"
REDIRECT_STATUS
"200"
REDIRECT_UNIQUE_ID
"Z7mPp5DyWLT8YV1VjBo_swAAAIw"
REDIRECT_URL
"/public/global-economy/why-the-next-ecb-stimulus-plan-may-fail"
REMOTE_ADDR
"3.147.66.200"
REMOTE_PORT
"39591"
REQUEST_METHOD
"GET"
REQUEST_SCHEME
"https"
REQUEST_TIME
1740214183
REQUEST_TIME_FLOAT
1740214183.662
REQUEST_URI
"/global-economy/why-the-next-ecb-stimulus-plan-may-fail"
SCRIPT_FILENAME
"/var/www/vhosts/dev.bbntimes.com/rct.dev.bbntimes.com/public/index.php"
SCRIPT_NAME
"/public/index.php"
SCRIPT_URI
"https://rct.dev.bbntimes.com/global-economy/why-the-next-ecb-stimulus-plan-may-fail"
SCRIPT_URL
"/global-economy/why-the-next-ecb-stimulus-plan-may-fail"
SERVER_ADDR
"5.196.1.209"
SERVER_ADMIN
"[no address given]"
SERVER_NAME
"rct.dev.bbntimes.com"
SERVER_PORT
"443"
SERVER_PROTOCOL
"HTTP/1.1"
SERVER_SIGNATURE
"<address>Apache Server at rct.dev.bbntimes.com Port 443</address>\n"
SERVER_SOFTWARE
"Apache"
SSL_TLS_SNI
"rct.dev.bbntimes.com"
SYMFONY_DOTENV_VARS
"APP_ENV,APP_SECRET,DATABASE_URL,MARIADB_PASSWORD,CORS_ALLOW_ORIGIN,MAILER_DSN,GOOGLE_RECAPTCHA_SECRET_KEY,GOOGLE_RECAPTCHA_SITE_KEY"
UNIQUE_ID
"Z7mPp5DyWLT8YV1VjBo_swAAAIw"

Sub Requests 6

CookieController :: renderAnalysis (token = 1eb0ba)

Key Value
_controller
"App\Controller\CookieController::renderAnalysis"
_format
"html"
_locale
"en"
_stopwatch_token
"2eac9d"

AppController :: renderHeader (token = 278881)

Key Value
_controller
"App\Controller\AppController::renderHeader"
_format
"html"
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"en"
_stopwatch_token
"c7c997"
slug
"home"

ArticleController :: trendingArticle (token = 48be2f)

Key Value
_controller
"App\Controller\ArticleController::trendingArticle"
_format
"html"
_locale
"en"
_stopwatch_token
"793ec4"
category
"Global Economy"

ArticleController :: relatedArticles (token = fd7ad5)

Key Value
_controller
"App\Controller\ArticleController::relatedArticles"
_format
"html"
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"en"
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"cd59fb"
current_article
App\Entity\Article {#1094
  -id: 4540
  -title: "Why The Next ECB Stimulus Plan May Fail"
  -slug: "why-the-next-ecb-stimulus-plan-may-fail"
  -introtext: "<p id="paragraph_2"><span style="color: #000000;">In June 2014, I wrote an article called&nbsp;<span style="color: #808080;"><a style="color: #808080;" href="https://www.dlacalle.com/el-plan-draghi-no-arregla-europa/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer">Draghi’s Plan does not fix Europe</a></span>. It explained that the structural challenges of the eurozone - high government spending, excessive tax wedge, lack of technology leadership and demographics - were not going to be solved by a round of quantitative easing.</span></p>\r\n"
  -content: """
    \r\n
    <p><span style="color: #000000;">Now, the evidence of the European Union leads the ECB to hint at another stimulus plan. <span style="color: #808080;"><a style="color: #808080;" href="https://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-17-2401_en.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gone is the triumphalism </a></span>displayed by of the European Commission on August 2017. The “strong recovery” they credited to the “decisive action of the European Union” has all but disappeared.</span></p>\r\n
    <p><span style="color: #000000;">The&nbsp;slowdown in the eurozone is not similar to other economies. The ECB has slashed growth estimates consistently and currently expects a level of growth that is half of what they had projected eighteen months ago.</span></p>\r\n
    <p id="paragraph_3"><span style="color: #000000;">It is fascinating because many analysts tend to discuss the European slowdown as if the stimulus had been abandoned. Far from it. Let us remember that the European Central Bank repurchased all debt maturities in its balance sheet and that it has launched a new liquidity injection (TLTRO) in March this year.</span></p>\r\n
    <p id="paragraph_4"><span style="color: #000000;">That is why it is appropriate to discuss the severity of the Eurozone slowdown in the context of the chain of fiscal and monetary stimuli that have been implemented. To understand the serious mistake of constantly stumbling on the same stone, we need to understand the size of the fiscal and monetary programs and their underwhelming results.</span></p>\r\n
    <ul>\r\n
    <li id="paragraph_5"><span style="color: #000000;"><strong>2008: “Economic Recovery Plan”</strong>,&nbsp;<span style="color: #808080;"><a style="color: #808080;" href="http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/articles/eu_economic_situation/article13502_en.htm" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer">200 billion euros in public spending</a></span>, infrastructure and “strategic sectors” to create “millions of jobs”.</span></li>\r\n
    <li id="paragraph_6"><span style="color: #000000;"><strong>2014 “Investment Plan for Europe”,</strong>&nbsp;of which more than&nbsp;<span style="color: #808080;"><a style="color: #808080;" href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/priorities/jobs-growth-and-investment/investment-plan-europe-juncker-plan/investment-plan-results_en">424 billion euro have been mobilized and 77 billion approved</a></span>.&nbsp;It was going to “increase the GDP of the European Union by 1.3% until 2020″. The GDP of the European Union has been revised down to half of the growth estimated by the ECB nearly two years ago.&nbsp;</span></li>\r\n
    <li id="paragraph_7"><span style="color: #000000;"><a style="color: #000000;" href="https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/ALL/?uri=CELEX:32009L0028" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"><strong>Energy directive</strong></a><strong>&nbsp;</strong>aimed at mobilizing tens of billions of euros in investment in green energy and networks and creating “millions of jobs”.</span></li>\r\n
    <li id="paragraph_8"><span style="color: #000000;"><strong>More than two billion euros of monetary expansion</strong>.&nbsp;The balance of the European Central Bank reaches&nbsp;<span style="color: #808080;"><a style="color: #808080;" href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/annual/balance/html/index.en.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer">40% of the GDP of the eurozone</a></span>, compared with 18% in the case of the Federal Reserve.</span></li>\r\n
    <li id="paragraph_9"><span style="color: #000000;"><strong style="color: #000000;"><a style="color: #000000;" href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/implement/omo/tltro/html/index.en.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer">TLTROs</a>:</strong>&nbsp;Three series of liquidity injections in 2014, 2016 and 2019.</span></li>\r\n
    <li id="paragraph_10"><span style="color: #000000;"><strong>Negative rates:</strong>&nbsp;Deficit spending financed at negative rates, junk debt with negative yields, zero interest rate policy and increased credit granted at dangerously low rates (with the consequent proliferation of&nbsp;<span style="color: #808080;"><a style="color: #808080;" href="https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1809g.htm" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"><em>zombie&nbsp;</em></a></span><a style="color: #000000;" href="https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1809g.htm" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"><span style="color: #808080;">companies</span><em>.</em></a></span></li>\r\n
    <li id="paragraph_11"><span style="color: #000000;"><strong>Extraordinary fiscal policies:</strong>&nbsp;The 19 eurozone countries have saved more than 1.15 trillion euros in debt interest due to the&nbsp;<span style="color: #808080;"><a style="color: #808080;" href="https://www.handelsblatt.com/today/finance/money-for-nothing-draghis-low-euro-zone-interest-rates-save-germany-billions/23581942.html?ticket=ST-480979-KmtmYEThSeeENTSR4FKN-ap2" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer">expansionary policy</a></span>&nbsp;against savers and pensioners, but the vast majority continue to finance public spending and structural deficits. Thus, a large part of the countries’ deficit reduction comes from artificially reducing rates, not improving imbalances, showing a distorted picture of risk and disguising many fiscal imbalances, since public spending has not been reduced.&nbsp;</span></li>\r\n
    </ul>\r\n
    <p id="paragraph_12"><span style="color: #000000;"><strong>We can only understand the magnitude of the failure and deterioration of the European economy within the context of what is, in every aspect, the largest stimulus chain ever implemented.&nbsp;</strong></span></p>\r\n
    <p id="paragraph_13" style="padding-left: 30px;"><span style="color: #000000;"><strong>The slowdown of the European economy is a disaster considering the enormous stimulus we are immersed in.</strong></span></p>\r\n
    <p id="paragraph_14"><span style="color: #000000;">When many analysts tell us that Europe “is not so bad” or that “it is only a slowdown,” they ignore that all this happens amidst an unprecedented chained stimulus. The results are not only extremely poor, but they are also deeply worrying.</span></p>\r\n
    <p id="paragraph_15"><span style="color: #000000;"><strong>Why the next “bazooka” will not work either.</strong></span></p>\r\n
    <p id="paragraph_16"><span style="color: #000000;">According to Morgan Stanley, the European Central Bank could be preparing a new repurchase program of between 2.2 and 3.3 billion euros. Not only buying back bonds from governments, but also from banks and companies.&nbsp;</span></p>\r\n
    <p id="paragraph_17"><span style="color: #000000;">What for? Even Italy – in the midst of a political crisis – has negative real sovereign bond yields. The sovereign debt of all the eurozone countries shows negative yields in two-year maturity and negative as well going up to seven years. Germany has just launched a 30-year bond at -0.11%. Is it really necessary to artificially depress yields even more?</span></p>\r\n
    <p id="paragraph_18"><span style="color: #000000;">In the&nbsp;<span style="color: #808080;"><a style="color: #808080;" href="https://wolfstreet.com/2019/07/09/negative-yielding-junk-bonds-have-arrived-in-europe/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"><strong>eurozone</strong></a></span>&nbsp;there are already fourteen junk bonds listed with negative yields and high-risk bonds of banks and companies are listed with ridiculous returns of 3-4%.</span></p>\r\n
    <p id="paragraph_19"><span style="color: #000000;">The problem of the eurozone is not lack of liquidity, when&nbsp;<strong>excessive liquidity reaches 1.8 trillion euros</strong>, or low rates when they are already negative. The eurozone problem is precisely the constant practice of using monetary policy as a perverse incentive to maintain structural imbalances.&nbsp;</span></p>\r\n
    <p id="paragraph_20"><span style="color: #000000;">Monetary policy works as a huge transfer of wealth from savers and productive sectors of the eurozone to inefficient governments and unproductive sectors that are constantly refinanced, zombifying the economy, putting obstacles to productivity and technological change. The stimulus chain described above can be summed up in the phrase: a huge subsidy to low productivity.</span></p>\r\n
    <p id="paragraph_21"><span style="color: #000000;">Here is the debate.&nbsp;<strong>Why has it worked in the US and not in Europe?&nbsp;</strong>First, because it is not true that the United States owes its improvement to quantitative easing. In a&nbsp;<span style="color: #808080;"><a style="color: #808080;" href="https://s3.amazonaws.com/real.stlouisfed.org/wp/2015/2015-015.pdf" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer">report by Stephen Williamson</a></span>&nbsp;for the Federal Reserve, he already warned that “there is no relationship between greater economic activity and quantitative easing.”&nbsp;</span></p>\r\n
    <p id="paragraph_22"><span style="color: #000000;">The US economy is the most dynamic, open and least dependent on bank financing of the world’s leading countries. The Federal Reserve never accounted for 100% of the demand for government bonds, it always kept an eye on the secondary market. The ECB became seven times the bond supply, according to Deutsche Bank. While in Europe most of the real economy is financed through bank debt (170% of GDP), in the US it is mainly via capital markets.&nbsp;That is why imposing negative rates is crazy.&nbsp;By weakening the banks and manipulating the cost of money, the credit transmission mechanism inexorably gears towards low-productivity, subsidized or zombified refinanced debt sectors.&nbsp;The magical idea that central planners will manage the yield curve, strengthening the credit mechanism while avoiding bubbles is simply ridiculous. It is exactly the same as thinking that if a subsidized company does not work, it is because it does not have enough subsidies.</span></p>\r\n
    <p id="paragraph_23"><span style="color: #000000;">Playing to be more than the Federal Reserve without having the dynamism, openness and free market of the United States is one of the reasons for the failure of the stimulus chain.&nbsp;<strong>Using monetary policy to perpetuate the interventionist model</strong>&nbsp;rather than strengthening private initiative in technology and high productivity sectors is another.&nbsp;But, above all, the biggest mistake is to ignore that the United States has the world’s reserve currency, which is used in 87% of global transactions while the&nbsp;<span style="color: #808080;"><a style="color: #808080;" href="https://www.bis.org/publ/rpfx16fx.pdf" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer">euro is very far</a></span>&nbsp;and falling.</span></p>\r\n
    <p id="paragraph_24"><span style="color: #000000;">In the eurozone governments have not used the period of low rates and high liquidity to make structural reforms, but to advance and strengthen a directed and interventionist model.</span></p>\r\n
    <p><span style="color: #000000;">The European Central Bank has become hostage to its own policy. A policy designed to buy time and implement structural reforms has become an excuse to avoid change.&nbsp;</span></p>\r\n
    <p id="paragraph_25"><span style="color: #000000;">When the stimuli are designed or used to direct the economic activity by politicians, the result is always the sam:&nbsp;<strong>S</strong><strong>tagnation and low productivity</strong>.&nbsp;</span></p>\r\n
    <p id="paragraph_27"><span style="color: #000000;">The diminishing returns of the policies of the European Central Bank are not due to lack of action, but because of the perverse combination of incentives.&nbsp;<span class="goog-text-highlight">Probably without wishing it, they are constantly incentivizing the indebted and obsolete sectors while discouraging the high productivity and growing sectors with increasing taxes via fiscal policy.&nbsp;</span>I’m afraid it won’t change and the results will be as disappointing as before.</span></p>
    """
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    date: 2021-08-05 09:42:38.0 UTC (+00:00)
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  -metakey: ""
  -metadesc: "In June 2014 I wrote an article called\u{A0}Draghi’s Plan does not fix Europe. In that article, I explained that the structural challenges of the eurozone - high government spending, excessive tax wedge, lack of technology leadership and demographics- were not going to be solved by a round of quantitative easing."
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AppController :: renderFooter (token = 8276fc)

Key Value
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"App\Controller\AppController::renderFooter"
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"html"
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"6afac5"

CookieController :: renderCookie (token = 244d46)

Key Value
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"App\Controller\CookieController::renderCookie"
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"html"
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"en"
_stopwatch_token
"0fa563"