GET https://rct.dev.bbntimes.com/global-economy/the-us-ten-year-shows-the-extent-of-the-bond-bubble

Response
200 OK
IP
3.144.18.202
Profiled on
Token
576714

ArticleController :: show

Request

GET Parameters

None

POST Parameters

None

Uploaded Files

None

Request Attributes

Key Value
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"App\Controller\ArticleController::show"
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"security.firewall.map.context.main"
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    3757 => Symfony\Component\WebLink\Link {#3757
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"article_show"
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_stopwatch_token 
"1f09cd"
category 
"global-economy"
slug 
"the-us-ten-year-shows-the-extent-of-the-bond-bubble"

Request Headers

Header Value
accept 
"*/*"
accept-encoding 
"gzip, br, zstd, deflate"
connection 
"close"
cookie 
"care_did=3a6c467d-abf1-4b56-a6da-4e71405a5440; PHPSESSID=0qf05cs20bai9aj8fd8lvd0hek"
host 
"rct.dev.bbntimes.com"
user-agent 
"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)"
x-php-ob-level 
"1"

Request Content

Request content not available (it was retrieved as a resource).

Response

Response Headers

Header Value
cache-control 
"no-cache, private"
content-type 
"text/html; charset=UTF-8"
date 
"Sat, 22 Feb 2025 09:02:05 GMT"
link 
"</build/runtime.js>; rel="preload"; as="script",</build/644.js>; rel="preload"; as="script",</build/502.js>; rel="preload"; as="script",</build/app.js>; rel="preload"; as="script",</build/view-more.js>; rel="preload"; as="script",</build/term-condition.js>; rel="preload"; as="script",</build/contact.js>; rel="preload"; as="script",</build/scroll-infinite-article.js>; rel="preload"; as="script",</build/app.css>; rel="preload"; as="style",</build/cookie-style.css>; rel="preload"; as="style",</build/term-condition-css.css>; rel="preload"; as="style",</build/contact-css.css>; rel="preload"; as="style",</build/comment-css.css>; rel="preload"; as="style""
x-debug-token 
"576714"

Cookies

Request Cookies

Key Value
PHPSESSID 
"0qf05cs20bai9aj8fd8lvd0hek"
care_did 
"3a6c467d-abf1-4b56-a6da-4e71405a5440"

Response Cookies

No response cookies

Session 6

Session Metadata

Key Value
Created 
"Sat, 22 Feb 25 09:01:38 +0000"
Last used 
"Sat, 22 Feb 25 09:02:03 +0000"
Lifetime 
0

Session Attributes

Attribute Value
_csrf/https-comment 
"G4UdkQik5mbfF8AXgtvWEOdH2qWtUV_PVZDdFTCR7BE"
_csrf/https-cookie_accept 
"Rrs9lh1hTYUMTCjFlNIRbF0vz45DXg0o7s_z0JHAGJs"

Session Usage

6 Usages
Stateless check enabled
Usage
Symfony\Component\Security\Csrf\TokenStorage\SessionTokenStorage:76
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Symfony\Component\Security\Csrf\TokenStorage\SessionTokenStorage:79
Show trace 
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Symfony\Component\Security\Csrf\TokenStorage\SessionTokenStorage:52
Show trace 
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Symfony\Component\Security\Csrf\TokenStorage\SessionTokenStorage:56
Show trace 
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Symfony\Component\Security\Core\Authentication\Token\Storage\UsageTrackingTokenStorage:41
Show trace 
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Symfony\Component\Security\Http\Firewall\ContextListener:171
Show trace 
[
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Flashes

No flash messages were created.

Server Parameters

Server Parameters

Defined in .env

Key Value
APP_ENV 
"dev"
APP_SECRET 
"0a988e63f011514eaabfc650b599af4d"
CORS_ALLOW_ORIGIN 
"*"
DATABASE_URL 
"mysql://bbndb_rctuser:33F5W25z40or0f7@localhost:3306/rct_bbntimes"
GOOGLE_RECAPTCHA_SECRET_KEY 
"6LdV5fgpAAAAANxzTG8ZMfIjil1wu-1vrQvnUt-x"
GOOGLE_RECAPTCHA_SITE_KEY 
"6LdV5fgpAAAAAENKcn73MJAhQrbtQeqgyC4wDLMP"
MAILER_DSN 
"smtp://no-reply%40rct.dev.bbntimes.com:Bl6%26gLD48%26Of919@rct.dev.bbntimes.com:465"
MARIADB_PASSWORD 
"i!87pK&!85ezc8"

Defined as regular env variables

Key Value
APP_DEBUG 
"1"
BASE 
"/public"
CONTEXT_DOCUMENT_ROOT 
"/var/www/vhosts/dev.bbntimes.com/rct.dev.bbntimes.com"
CONTEXT_PREFIX 
""
DOCUMENT_ROOT 
"/var/www/vhosts/dev.bbntimes.com/rct.dev.bbntimes.com"
FCGI_ROLE 
"RESPONDER"
GATEWAY_INTERFACE 
"CGI/1.1"
HTTPS 
"on"
HTTP_ACCEPT 
"*/*"
HTTP_ACCEPT_ENCODING 
"gzip, br, zstd, deflate"
HTTP_CONNECTION 
"close"
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"0"
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"0"
PATH 
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PHP_SELF 
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PP_CUSTOM_PHP_CGI_INDEX 
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PP_CUSTOM_PHP_INI 
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QUERY_STRING 
""
REDIRECT_BASE 
"/public"
REDIRECT_HTTPS 
"on"
REDIRECT_PASSENGER_COMPILE_NATIVE_SUPPORT_BINARY 
"0"
REDIRECT_PASSENGER_DOWNLOAD_NATIVE_SUPPORT_BINARY 
"0"
REDIRECT_REDIRECT_HTTPS 
"on"
REDIRECT_REDIRECT_PASSENGER_COMPILE_NATIVE_SUPPORT_BINARY 
"0"
REDIRECT_REDIRECT_PASSENGER_DOWNLOAD_NATIVE_SUPPORT_BINARY 
"0"
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"/global-economy/the-us-ten-year-shows-the-extent-of-the-bond-bubble"
REDIRECT_SSL_TLS_SNI 
"rct.dev.bbntimes.com"
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"200"
REDIRECT_UNIQUE_ID 
"Z7mSjZDyWLT8YV1VjBpFyQAAAIM"
REDIRECT_URL 
"/public/global-economy/the-us-ten-year-shows-the-extent-of-the-bond-bubble"
REMOTE_ADDR 
"3.144.18.202"
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"45239"
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"GET"
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REQUEST_TIME 
1740214925
REQUEST_TIME_FLOAT 
1740214925.2287
REQUEST_URI 
"/global-economy/the-us-ten-year-shows-the-extent-of-the-bond-bubble"
SCRIPT_FILENAME 
"/var/www/vhosts/dev.bbntimes.com/rct.dev.bbntimes.com/public/index.php"
SCRIPT_NAME 
"/public/index.php"
SCRIPT_URI 
"https://rct.dev.bbntimes.com/global-economy/the-us-ten-year-shows-the-extent-of-the-bond-bubble"
SCRIPT_URL 
"/global-economy/the-us-ten-year-shows-the-extent-of-the-bond-bubble"
SERVER_ADDR 
"5.196.1.209"
SERVER_ADMIN 
"[no address given]"
SERVER_NAME 
"rct.dev.bbntimes.com"
SERVER_PORT 
"443"
SERVER_PROTOCOL 
"HTTP/1.1"
SERVER_SIGNATURE 
"<address>Apache Server at rct.dev.bbntimes.com Port 443</address>\n"
SERVER_SOFTWARE 
"Apache"
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SYMFONY_DOTENV_VARS 
"APP_ENV,APP_SECRET,DATABASE_URL,MARIADB_PASSWORD,CORS_ALLOW_ORIGIN,MAILER_DSN,GOOGLE_RECAPTCHA_SECRET_KEY,GOOGLE_RECAPTCHA_SITE_KEY"
UNIQUE_ID 
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Sub Requests 6

CookieController :: renderAnalysis (token = a38be3)

Key Value
_controller 
"App\Controller\CookieController::renderAnalysis"
_format 
"html"
_locale 
"en"
_stopwatch_token 
"68e945"

AppController :: renderHeader (token = 2a2589)

Key Value
_controller 
"App\Controller\AppController::renderHeader"
_format 
"html"
_locale 
"en"
_stopwatch_token 
"5e6420"
slug 
"home"

ArticleController :: trendingArticle (token = 55702e)

Key Value
_controller 
"App\Controller\ArticleController::trendingArticle"
_format 
"html"
_locale 
"en"
_stopwatch_token 
"6e0664"
category 
"Global Economy"

ArticleController :: relatedArticles (token = 25db5e)

Key Value
_controller 
"App\Controller\ArticleController::relatedArticles"
_format 
"html"
_locale 
"en"
_stopwatch_token 
"d7ef4f"
current_article 
App\Entity\Article {#1094
  -id: 2781
  -title: "The US Ten-Year Shows The Extent Of The Bond Bubble"
  -slug: "the-us-ten-year-shows-the-extent-of-the-bond-bubble"
  -introtext: "<p class="p1" style="padding-left: 30px;"><span class="s1"><i>“Only&nbsp;when the tide&nbsp;goes out do you discover who’s been swimming&nbsp;naked.” – Warren Buffett</i></span></p>\r\n"
  -content: """
    \r\n
    <p class="p1"><span class="s1">The US 10-year bond has reached, at the close of this article,&nbsp;<b>a yield of 3.2%</b>, the highest since 2011. As inflation in the United States picks up, the economy grows well above consensus estimates and unemployment falls to the lowest level of the last fifty years, it is only normal that the Federal Reserve rate hikes are confirmed.</span></p>\r\n
    <p class="p1"><span class="s1">Those concerned about a “hawkish” tone of the Federal Reserve and the path of normalization, should admit the reality. Many investors were aggressively betting on the Fed not doing what it had announced it would do for two years. Too many times have I heard people say that “the Fed will not dare” while increasing exposure to negative-yield bonds and emerging market risk.</span></p>\r\n
    <p class="p2"><span class="s1">The first, and most important factor is that the&nbsp;<b>Federal Reserve is not hawkish or aggressive:</b></span></p>\r\n
    <ul class="ul1">\r\n
    <li class="li3"><span class="s1"><b>Credit conditions</b>&nbsp;remain loose.</span></li>\r\n
    <li class="li3"><span class="s1"><b>Money supply growth</b>&nbsp;(as seen in the chart above) exceeds real GDP growth and is rising despite Fed balance sheet reduction.</span></li>\r\n
    <li class="li3"><span class="s1">The&nbsp;<b>Federal Reserve remains 150 bps behind the curve and balance sheet reduction has been moderate</b>&nbsp;and extremely slow.</span></li>\r\n
    </ul>\r\n
    <p class="p1"><span class="s1">That implies that the Federal Reserve will maintain its path of rate hikes as it has been announced over and over again for the past two years. Those who decided to ignore it did it at their own peril and cannot expect the Fed to bail them out of wrong debt or investent decisions.</span></p>\r\n
    <p class="p1"><span class="s1"><b>If the Federal Reserve does not advance in its normalization path, it will have no tools for the next change of cycle, making the next crisis much harder and deeper than any of us can imagine</b>.</span></p>\r\n
    <p class="p1"><span class="s1">What is the problem, then?&nbsp;A market that has been ignoring the warning signs expecting that the Federal Reserve will not do what it has announced and that the US economy would not strengthen.&nbsp;A kind of global “Too Big To Fail” has driven more than 70 countries around the world to increase their fiscal imbalances and borrow at historical high amounts thinking that, by doing so, the Federal Reserve would not dare to raise rates and would maintain the bond bubble.</span></p>\r\n
    <p class="p1"><span class="s1">They were wrong.</span></p>\r\n
    <p class="p2"><span class="s1"><b>Where are the greatest risks and opportunities?</b></span></p>\r\n
    <p class="p1"><span class="s1">The greatest risks are in the two apparent opposite extremes of risk.&nbsp;The allegedly safest assets, sovereign bonds, are in the most obvious bubble. While the amount of negative-yield bonds has fallen,&nbsp;<b>more than 6 trillion dollars of bonds with negative real returns represent an important source of nominal and real losses for investors</b>.</span></p>\r\n
    <p class="p1"><span class="s1">The yields of the 10-year bonds of the eurozone sovereign issuers are completely disconnected from the reality of fiscal and political risk.</span></p>\r\n
    <p class="p1"><span class="s1">Let us ask ourselves for a moment if any of us would buy bonds from Italy, Spain, Portugal or Greece at current yields if they were not completely absorbed by the ECB.&nbsp;No one.&nbsp;Therefore, even if your answer is “the ECB will have to keep buying”, the bubble is unquestionable, and it only disguises itself.&nbsp;The European Central Bank has been the only buyer of Italian bonds for months.</span></p>\r\n
    <p class="p1"><span class="s1">You have to look at 20 or 30-year maturities in the eurozone to find sovereign bonds yielding more than inflation expectations. Completely insane.</span></p>\r\n
    <p class="p1"><span class="s1">The same thing happens on the other side of the risk spectrum, the so-called “high-yield” bonds, or as I call them “high-yield with no yield”.</span></p>\r\n
    <p class="p1"><span class="s1">While the Bank Of International Settlements (BIS) warns that the number of zombie companies (those who cannot cover interest expenses with operating income) has risen to all-time highs, those same companies are issuing debt at all-time low yields.</span></p>\r\n
    <p class="p1"><span class="s1">When the differential of the majority of these “high-yield” bonds with the sovereign is around 270 basis points, investors are literally buying insolvent issuers’ debt at abnormally low yields. At the very least, companies with significant financial difficulties are issuing paper at&nbsp;exceptionally low rates.</span></p>\r\n
    <p class="p1"><span class="s1"><b>Financial repression carried out by central banks has led the most cautious and conservative investors to take more risk for lower returns in order to get some yield and income.</b></span></p>\r\n
    <p class="p1"><span class="s1">The same problem is seen in emerging markets.&nbsp;The 10-year Brazilian bond yields a return of 11%, a figure well below the 14-15% that any analysis of currency, inflation and political risk would suggest.</span></p>\r\n
    <p>Some emerging markets that have aggressively increased their debt in dollars in recent years, especially in 2017, show a much higher risk profile than what the yield offered by their bonds discounts.</p>\r\n
    <p>Performance of the emerging market bond ETF shows this clearly.</p>\r\n
    <p class="p1"><span class="s1">This accumulation of excess risk-taking created in the “search for yield” years can lead to losses in the more conservative funds of close to 2.5 trillion US dollars, according to Goldman Sachs.</span></p>\r\n
    <p class="p2"><span class="s1"><b>But where are the opportunities?</b></span></p>\r\n
    <p class="p1"><span class="s1">Fixed income continues to offer attractive opportunities in US bonds of high-quality issuers, where the combination of currency strength and decent yield generate a good hedge against the risk of the aforementioned bond bubble.</span></p>\r\n
    <p class="p1"><span class="s1">Although some of these bonds have fallen somewhat in price, the evolution of the US dollar offsets this impact, something that is not likely to happen in other and higher risk assets.</span></p>\r\n
    <p class="p1"><span class="s1">Some Emerging Markets have corporate issuers with fully dollarized revenues and low-risk profiles that are worth analyzing.&nbsp;A fall in the price of the bonds of issuers with low debt and high income in dollars can be a good opportunity if we analyze correctly their solvency and liquidity profile without using extremely optimistic estimates.</span></p>\r\n
    <p class="p1"><span class="s1">In developed markets, boring is good.&nbsp;Those boring non-financial companies, without much growth, but healthy balance sheets, which have more solid liquidity and solvency ratios than their countries’ governments and comparable competitors also offer good opportunities.&nbsp;These bonds, of course, are also expensive, but because they deserve it, not because of manipulation through monetary repression.</span></p>\r\n
    <p class="p1"><span class="s1"><b>Value chasing in fixed income can be tricky when yields are artificially suppressed. Expensive-for-a-reason bonds are a better option for investors than catching falling knives under the mirage of value.&nbsp;</b></span></p>\r\n
    <p class="p1"><span class="s1">Despite rising yields, the probability of recession is low. However, it was also low just before the last recession. According to Joachim&nbsp;Fels, 97% of consensus economists didn’t see the last recession the quarter before it started. Even worse, 77% didn’t see a recession when it was already happening!</span></p>\r\n
    <p class="p1"><span class="s1">In Europe, the ECB is dangerously losing the opportunity to raise rates and accumulate tools in the face of a change in the cycle, and if it errs on the side of caution, the negative effect will be worse in the medium term.&nbsp;The Federal Reserve knows that credit conditions remain extremely lax and the US economy can absorb another five rate hikes. Any global bond portfolio must reflect that reality.</span></p>
    """
  -user: Proxies\__CG__\App\Entity\User {#1092 …}
  -createdAt: DateTime @1539164298 {#1145
    date: 2018-10-10 09:38:18.0 UTC (+00:00)
  }
  -updatedAt: DateTime @1628155220 {#1150
    date: 2021-08-05 09:20:20.0 UTC (+00:00)
  }
  -deletedAt: null
  -category: App\Entity\Category {#445 …}
  -status: "published"
  -imageCard: Proxies\__CG__\App\Entity\File {#1184 …}
  -ImageHeader: Proxies\__CG__\App\Entity\File {#1184 …}
  -featured: false
  -mainView: false
  -clicks: 2722
  -comments: Doctrine\ORM\PersistentCollection {#1125 …}
  -reviewed_at: DateTime @1539164296 {#1148
    date: 2018-10-10 09:38:16.0 UTC (+00:00)
  }
  -metakey: ""
  -metadesc: "The US 10-year bond has reached, at the close of this article,\u{A0}a yield of 3.2%, the highest since 2011. As inflation in the United States picks up, the economy grows well above consensus estimates and unemployment falls to the lowest level of the last fifty years, it is only normal that the Federal Reserve rate hikes are confirmed."
  -robots: null
  -publishedAt: DateTime @1539164296 {#1147
    date: 2018-10-10 09:38:16.0 UTC (+00:00)
  }
  -canonical: null
  -superTag: null
}

AppController :: renderFooter (token = 642e04)

Key Value
_controller 
"App\Controller\AppController::renderFooter"
_format 
"html"
_locale 
"en"
_stopwatch_token 
"9a403c"

CookieController :: renderCookie (token = 635d4e)

Key Value
_controller 
"App\Controller\CookieController::renderCookie"
_format 
"html"
_locale 
"en"
_stopwatch_token 
"c8bc59"