GET https://rct.dev.bbntimes.com/science/covid-19-and-the-mismaking-of-history-where-are-we-really

ArticleController :: show

Request

GET Parameters

None

POST Parameters

None

Uploaded Files

None

Request Attributes

Key Value
_controller
"App\Controller\ArticleController::show"
_firewall_context
"security.firewall.map.context.main"
_links
Symfony\Component\WebLink\GenericLinkProvider {#3670
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      -attributes: [
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    3789 => Symfony\Component\WebLink\Link {#3789
      -href: "/build/644.js"
      -rel: [
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      -attributes: [
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    3788 => Symfony\Component\WebLink\Link {#3788
      -href: "/build/502.js"
      -rel: [
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      -attributes: [
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    3787 => Symfony\Component\WebLink\Link {#3787
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      -attributes: [
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      -rel: [
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      -attributes: [
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    3785 => Symfony\Component\WebLink\Link {#3785
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      -rel: [
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      -attributes: [
        "as" => "script"
      ]
    }
    3784 => Symfony\Component\WebLink\Link {#3784
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      -rel: [
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      ]
      -attributes: [
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      ]
    }
    3783 => Symfony\Component\WebLink\Link {#3783
      -href: "/build/scroll-infinite-article.js"
      -rel: [
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      ]
      -attributes: [
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      ]
    }
    3782 => Symfony\Component\WebLink\Link {#3782
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      -rel: [
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      ]
      -attributes: [
        "as" => "style"
      ]
    }
    3781 => Symfony\Component\WebLink\Link {#3781
      -href: "/build/cookie-style.css"
      -rel: [
        "preload" => "preload"
      ]
      -attributes: [
        "as" => "style"
      ]
    }
    3780 => Symfony\Component\WebLink\Link {#3780
      -href: "/build/term-condition-css.css"
      -rel: [
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      -attributes: [
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      ]
    }
    3779 => Symfony\Component\WebLink\Link {#3779
      -href: "/build/contact-css.css"
      -rel: [
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      -attributes: [
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      ]
    }
    3778 => Symfony\Component\WebLink\Link {#3778
      -href: "/build/comment-css.css"
      -rel: [
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      -attributes: [
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      ]
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}
_route
"article_show"
_route_params
[
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  "slug" => "covid-19-and-the-mismaking-of-history-where-are-we-really"
]
_security_firewall_run
"_security_main"
_stopwatch_token
"1d2bea"
category
"science"
slug
"covid-19-and-the-mismaking-of-history-where-are-we-really"

Request Headers

Header Value
accept
"*/*"
accept-encoding
"gzip, br, zstd, deflate"
connection
"close"
cookie
"PHPSESSID=aho34r1jb2qnduodnusoo7mvgp"
host
"rct.dev.bbntimes.com"
user-agent
"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)"
x-php-ob-level
"1"

Request Content

Request content not available (it was retrieved as a resource).

Response

Response Headers

Header Value
cache-control
"no-cache, private"
content-type
"text/html; charset=UTF-8"
date
"Sat, 22 Feb 2025 13:25:47 GMT"
link
"</build/runtime.js>; rel="preload"; as="script",</build/644.js>; rel="preload"; as="script",</build/502.js>; rel="preload"; as="script",</build/app.js>; rel="preload"; as="script",</build/view-more.js>; rel="preload"; as="script",</build/term-condition.js>; rel="preload"; as="script",</build/contact.js>; rel="preload"; as="script",</build/scroll-infinite-article.js>; rel="preload"; as="script",</build/app.css>; rel="preload"; as="style",</build/cookie-style.css>; rel="preload"; as="style",</build/term-condition-css.css>; rel="preload"; as="style",</build/contact-css.css>; rel="preload"; as="style",</build/comment-css.css>; rel="preload"; as="style""
x-debug-token
"773c35"

Cookies

Request Cookies

Key Value
PHPSESSID
"aho34r1jb2qnduodnusoo7mvgp"

Response Cookies

No response cookies

Session 6

Session Metadata

Key Value
Created
"Sat, 22 Feb 25 13:25:36 +0000"
Last used
"Sat, 22 Feb 25 13:25:45 +0000"
Lifetime
0

Session Attributes

Attribute Value
_csrf/https-comment
"AL6jfDYOzPTtJnT44YDkxaTScURH9gyzM8PbTEbMMAM"
_csrf/https-cookie_accept
"KbjC4566nkAvNyBU2QWjqSSvri258AEJ-Xq53iHd8Dk"

Session Usage

6 Usages
Stateless check enabled
Usage
Symfony\Component\Security\Csrf\TokenStorage\SessionTokenStorage:76
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Symfony\Component\Security\Csrf\TokenStorage\SessionTokenStorage:79
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Symfony\Component\Security\Csrf\TokenStorage\SessionTokenStorage:52
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    "line" => 197
    "function" => "handle"
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    "function" => "handle"
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    "file" => "/var/www/vhosts/dev.bbntimes.com/rct.dev.bbntimes.com/vendor/autoload_runtime.php"
    "line" => 29
    "function" => "run"
    "class" => "Symfony\Component\Runtime\Runner\Symfony\HttpKernelRunner"
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    "args" => [
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    ]
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]
Symfony\Component\Security\Core\Authentication\Token\Storage\UsageTrackingTokenStorage:41
[
  [
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    "line" => 41
    "function" => "getMetadataBag"
    "class" => "Symfony\Component\HttpFoundation\Session\Session"
    "type" => "->"
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  [
    "file" => "/var/www/vhosts/dev.bbntimes.com/rct.dev.bbntimes.com/vendor/symfony/twig-bridge/AppVariable.php"
    "line" => 103
    "function" => "getToken"
    "class" => "Symfony\Component\Security\Core\Authentication\Token\Storage\UsageTrackingTokenStorage"
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    "line" => 1635
    "function" => "getUser"
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    "function" => "twig_get_attribute"
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    "function" => "displayWithErrorHandling"
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    "function" => "display"
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    "function" => "render"
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    "function" => "doRender"
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    "function" => "render"
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    "function" => "handle"
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  [
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    "line" => 379
    "function" => "display"
    "class" => "Twig\Template"
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  [
    "file" => "/var/www/vhosts/dev.bbntimes.com/rct.dev.bbntimes.com/vendor/twig/twig/src/TemplateWrapper.php"
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    "function" => "render"
    "class" => "Twig\Template"
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  [
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    "function" => "render"
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  [
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    "function" => "render"
    "class" => "Twig\Environment"
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  [
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    "line" => 453
    "function" => "doRenderView"
    "class" => "Symfony\Bundle\FrameworkBundle\Controller\AbstractController"
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    "function" => "doRender"
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  [
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    "function" => "show"
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  ]
  [
    "file" => "/var/www/vhosts/dev.bbntimes.com/rct.dev.bbntimes.com/vendor/symfony/http-kernel/HttpKernel.php"
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    "function" => "handleRaw"
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  [
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    "function" => "handle"
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  [
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    "function" => "handle"
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    "function" => "run"
    "class" => "Symfony\Component\Runtime\Runner\Symfony\HttpKernelRunner"
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  [
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    "line" => 5
    "args" => [
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]
Symfony\Component\Security\Http\Firewall\ContextListener:171
[
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    "line" => 171
    "function" => "remove"
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    "type" => "->"
  ]
  [
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    "line" => 116
    "function" => "onKernelResponse"
    "class" => "Symfony\Component\Security\Http\Firewall\ContextListener"
    "type" => "->"
  ]
  [
    "file" => "/var/www/vhosts/dev.bbntimes.com/rct.dev.bbntimes.com/vendor/symfony/event-dispatcher/EventDispatcher.php"
    "line" => 220
    "function" => "__invoke"
    "class" => "Symfony\Component\EventDispatcher\Debug\WrappedListener"
    "type" => "->"
  ]
  [
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    "function" => "callListeners"
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    "function" => "require_once"
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]

Flashes

Flashes

No flash messages were created.

Server Parameters

Server Parameters

Defined in .env

Key Value
APP_ENV
"dev"
APP_SECRET
"0a988e63f011514eaabfc650b599af4d"
CORS_ALLOW_ORIGIN
"*"
DATABASE_URL
"mysql://bbndb_rctuser:33F5W25z40or0f7@localhost:3306/rct_bbntimes"
GOOGLE_RECAPTCHA_SECRET_KEY
"6LdV5fgpAAAAANxzTG8ZMfIjil1wu-1vrQvnUt-x"
GOOGLE_RECAPTCHA_SITE_KEY
"6LdV5fgpAAAAAENKcn73MJAhQrbtQeqgyC4wDLMP"
MAILER_DSN
"smtp://no-reply%40rct.dev.bbntimes.com:Bl6%26gLD48%26Of919@rct.dev.bbntimes.com:465"
MARIADB_PASSWORD
"i!87pK&!85ezc8"

Defined as regular env variables

Key Value
APP_DEBUG
"1"
BASE
"/public"
CONTEXT_DOCUMENT_ROOT
"/var/www/vhosts/dev.bbntimes.com/rct.dev.bbntimes.com"
CONTEXT_PREFIX
""
DOCUMENT_ROOT
"/var/www/vhosts/dev.bbntimes.com/rct.dev.bbntimes.com"
FCGI_ROLE
"RESPONDER"
GATEWAY_INTERFACE
"CGI/1.1"
HTTPS
"on"
HTTP_ACCEPT
"*/*"
HTTP_ACCEPT_ENCODING
"gzip, br, zstd, deflate"
HTTP_CONNECTION
"close"
HTTP_COOKIE
"PHPSESSID=aho34r1jb2qnduodnusoo7mvgp"
HTTP_HOST
"rct.dev.bbntimes.com"
HTTP_USER_AGENT
"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)"
PASSENGER_COMPILE_NATIVE_SUPPORT_BINARY
"0"
PASSENGER_DOWNLOAD_NATIVE_SUPPORT_BINARY
"0"
PATH
"/usr/local/sbin:/usr/local/bin:/usr/sbin:/usr/bin:/sbin:/bin:/snap/bin"
PHP_SELF
"/public/index.php"
PP_CUSTOM_PHP_CGI_INDEX
"plesk-php81-fastcgi"
PP_CUSTOM_PHP_INI
"/var/www/vhosts/system/rct.dev.bbntimes.com/etc/php.ini"
QUERY_STRING
""
REDIRECT_BASE
"/public"
REDIRECT_HTTPS
"on"
REDIRECT_PASSENGER_COMPILE_NATIVE_SUPPORT_BINARY
"0"
REDIRECT_PASSENGER_DOWNLOAD_NATIVE_SUPPORT_BINARY
"0"
REDIRECT_REDIRECT_HTTPS
"on"
REDIRECT_REDIRECT_PASSENGER_COMPILE_NATIVE_SUPPORT_BINARY
"0"
REDIRECT_REDIRECT_PASSENGER_DOWNLOAD_NATIVE_SUPPORT_BINARY
"0"
REDIRECT_REDIRECT_SCRIPT_URI
"https://rct.dev.bbntimes.com/science/covid-19-and-the-mismaking-of-history-where-are-we-really"
REDIRECT_REDIRECT_SCRIPT_URL
"/science/covid-19-and-the-mismaking-of-history-where-are-we-really"
REDIRECT_REDIRECT_SSL_TLS_SNI
"rct.dev.bbntimes.com"
REDIRECT_REDIRECT_STATUS
"200"
REDIRECT_REDIRECT_UNIQUE_ID
"Z7nQWpDyWLT8YV1VjBpTvgAAAJU"
REDIRECT_SCRIPT_URI
"https://rct.dev.bbntimes.com/science/covid-19-and-the-mismaking-of-history-where-are-we-really"
REDIRECT_SCRIPT_URL
"/science/covid-19-and-the-mismaking-of-history-where-are-we-really"
REDIRECT_SSL_TLS_SNI
"rct.dev.bbntimes.com"
REDIRECT_STATUS
"200"
REDIRECT_UNIQUE_ID
"Z7nQWpDyWLT8YV1VjBpTvgAAAJU"
REDIRECT_URL
"/public/science/covid-19-and-the-mismaking-of-history-where-are-we-really"
REMOTE_ADDR
"3.145.72.125"
REMOTE_PORT
"13753"
REQUEST_METHOD
"GET"
REQUEST_SCHEME
"https"
REQUEST_TIME
1740230746
REQUEST_TIME_FLOAT
1740230746.8453
REQUEST_URI
"/science/covid-19-and-the-mismaking-of-history-where-are-we-really"
SCRIPT_FILENAME
"/var/www/vhosts/dev.bbntimes.com/rct.dev.bbntimes.com/public/index.php"
SCRIPT_NAME
"/public/index.php"
SCRIPT_URI
"https://rct.dev.bbntimes.com/science/covid-19-and-the-mismaking-of-history-where-are-we-really"
SCRIPT_URL
"/science/covid-19-and-the-mismaking-of-history-where-are-we-really"
SERVER_ADDR
"5.196.1.209"
SERVER_ADMIN
"[no address given]"
SERVER_NAME
"rct.dev.bbntimes.com"
SERVER_PORT
"443"
SERVER_PROTOCOL
"HTTP/1.1"
SERVER_SIGNATURE
"<address>Apache Server at rct.dev.bbntimes.com Port 443</address>\n"
SERVER_SOFTWARE
"Apache"
SSL_TLS_SNI
"rct.dev.bbntimes.com"
SYMFONY_DOTENV_VARS
"APP_ENV,APP_SECRET,DATABASE_URL,MARIADB_PASSWORD,CORS_ALLOW_ORIGIN,MAILER_DSN,GOOGLE_RECAPTCHA_SECRET_KEY,GOOGLE_RECAPTCHA_SITE_KEY"
UNIQUE_ID
"Z7nQWpDyWLT8YV1VjBpTvgAAAJU"

Sub Requests 6

CookieController :: renderAnalysis (token = 83d0b9)

Key Value
_controller
"App\Controller\CookieController::renderAnalysis"
_format
"html"
_locale
"en"
_stopwatch_token
"b859cb"

AppController :: renderHeader (token = dc1390)

Key Value
_controller
"App\Controller\AppController::renderHeader"
_format
"html"
_locale
"en"
_stopwatch_token
"0d9baa"
slug
"home"

ArticleController :: trendingArticle (token = f99eb1)

Key Value
_controller
"App\Controller\ArticleController::trendingArticle"
_format
"html"
_locale
"en"
_stopwatch_token
"4a8cdc"
category
"Science"

ArticleController :: relatedArticles (token = cb9cd2)

Key Value
_controller
"App\Controller\ArticleController::relatedArticles"
_format
"html"
_locale
"en"
_stopwatch_token
"e3e763"
current_article
App\Entity\Article {#1094
  -id: 6643
  -title: "COVID-19 and the Mismaking of History: Where Are We, Really?"
  -slug: "covid-19-and-the-mismaking-of-history-where-are-we-really"
  -introtext: """
    <div id="ember73" class="ember-view">\r\n
    <div class="reader-article-content" dir="ltr">\r\n
    <p>News reports refer routinely now to “<a href="https://theconversation.com/can-we-please-stop-talking-about-a-second-wave-of-covid-19-140140" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">second waves</a>” of the COVID-19 pandemic.&nbsp;Such references, in turn, invoke&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">prior pandemics</a>&nbsp;subject to such ebb and flow.&nbsp;</p>\r\n
    """
  -content: """
    \r\n
    <p>The classic comparison is, of course, to pandemic strains of influenza.&nbsp;The flu is characteristically seasonal, with transmission rates dropping in summer, rising in fall- for reasons less clear than they might seem.&nbsp;The obvious explanation is that the flu virus hates the heat or sunlight- but why then are tropical countries subject to flu outbreaks at all?</p>\r\n
    <p>In any event, when the flu occurs in waves, they are waves of transmission mediated by the virus.&nbsp;In a human population behaving much the same at times&nbsp;<strong>A</strong>,&nbsp;<strong>B</strong>, and&nbsp;<strong>C,</strong>&nbsp;the flu might circulate briskly at time&nbsp;<strong>A</strong>; not circulate at time&nbsp;<strong>B</strong>; and then circulate briskly again at time&nbsp;<strong>C</strong>.&nbsp;Time&nbsp;<strong>C</strong>&nbsp;in this scenario…is a second wave.</p>\r\n
    <p>But that is not at all what is happening with COVID-19.&nbsp;</p>\r\n
    <p>Thus far, the virus has circulated quite consistently- including now, in the middle of our (northern hemisphere) summer.&nbsp;Any notion that SARS-CoV-2 would take the summer off to return in the fall is obsolete.&nbsp;This virus, in an apparent departure from influenza, is clearly willing and able to work steadily through the summer.</p>\r\n
    <p>What accounts for changes in COVID-19 transmission- by location, and over time in a given location- seems to owe just about nothing thus far to any vagaries of the virus.&nbsp;The fault, as it were, lies not in SARS, but in ourselves.&nbsp;Our behavioral changes readily account for changes in transmission.</p>\r\n
    <p>Where we locked down before the virus was already widespread, we stifled transmission.&nbsp;But this was never anything remotely like a “cure,” nor the full measure of managerial success the most ardent champions of “flatten the curve” may have inferred.&nbsp;This was much more like a levee tossed up in haste to contain a flood.&nbsp;Every person who stayed hidden from the virus played the part of a sandbag.&nbsp;At no point thus far, however, have the floodwaters receded.</p>\r\n
    <p>Accordingly, the moment we started pulling sandbags out of that human “levee,” the flood was there to be unleashed.&nbsp;This was not a “second” wave, not a new inundation; this was and is the contained first wave, waiting to wash over us in whatever way we allowed it -&nbsp;as was perfectly predicted&nbsp;in the early days of the pandemic, seemingly now several lifetimes ago.</p>\r\n
    <p>Where no such levee was constructed in the first place- notably,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/87812" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">Sweden</a>- the flood of contagion&nbsp;<a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">crested, and has mostly dissipated</a>.&nbsp;If there were a sudden, new spike in cases among the general population in Sweden, it would be our first glimpse of a genuine “second wave,” and we would need to account for it.&nbsp;Potential explanations could include environmental changes favoring more concentrated exposures to the virus, or mutations of the virus itself.&nbsp;But to date, we have no need for such explanations for a second wave that has yet to occur.&nbsp;The situation is much the same in northern Italy, and in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">New York City</a>- both of which locked down only after the virus was too widespread to contain.&nbsp;What Sweden did by design, these locations did inadvertently.</p>\r\n
    <p>There is no second wave- thus far, at least.&nbsp;Surging case counts&nbsp;<a href="https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">in much of the United States</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/coronavirus-disaster-declared-melbourne-cases-surge-globally-n1235612" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">many parts of the world</a>&nbsp;are exactly what we should expect when a formerly unexposed population comes indiscriminately out of lockdown while the virus is still circulating.&nbsp;This is the viral analogue to pulling down our levee before the flood waters have receded.</p>\r\n
    <p>Yet, reports from all over the world refer to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/04/world/australia/coronavirus-melbourne-lockdown.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">a second wave</a>&nbsp;that will muddy understanding of these floodwaters of contagion.&nbsp;Even as we live through this indelible patch of history, we are laying down tracks to misremember it.&nbsp;As our experiences make history, our accounts of the experiences mismake it.&nbsp;If current indications are reliable, much of what we record about this pandemic will be gibberish.&nbsp;</p>\r\n
    <p>I can’t help but wonder: how much of what has been recorded for past pandemics, informing our understanding of this one, is gibberish, too?&nbsp;Famously, those who don’t learn from the follies of history are destined to repeat them- but how much is that compounded when the lessons of history are themselves folly?&nbsp;I shudder to think.</p>\r\n
    <p>So much for ruminations on a misrepresented present translating into a misrecorded past.&nbsp;The pandemic itself has been clear and consistent in its behavior, providing guidance through the lens of epidemiology that&nbsp;<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/covid-pandemic-polemics-peace-out-david/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the conflicting views of ideology conspire to obscure</a>. Where are we now, and what does that portend for what will, and should, happen next?</p>\r\n
    <p>Those many parts of the U.S., and world, that locked down initially and then opened up haphazardly to unleash the pent-up first wave are prone to one of several scenarios now: they can (<strong><em>1</em></strong>) lock down again and if they do, they can do it either (<strong><em>a</em></strong>) before, or (<strong><em>b</em></strong>) after, the virus is already widespread; or they can (<strong><em>2</em></strong>) ride it out.&nbsp;In either scenario&nbsp;<strong><em>1</em></strong>&nbsp;or&nbsp;<strong><em>2</em></strong>, the response can be of the prevailing “one size fits all” variety, or it could be&nbsp;<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-two-pandemics-better-than-one-covid19-opportunity-david/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">matched to risk tier</a>.&nbsp;In other words, those at high risk of severe COVID outcomes could return to lockdown, while those at low risk ride it out.&nbsp;</p>\r\n
    <p>If any given location locks down before the virus is widespread, they are back where they were before- crouching behind that levee.&nbsp;If they lock down too late to prevent widespread transmission, they will be like New York City, or northern Italy.&nbsp;&nbsp;The toll will be unnecessarily high, because the highly vulnerable will be exposed along with the rest.&nbsp;So, too, if they ride it out without meticulous protection of the most vulnerable.&nbsp;</p>\r\n
    <p>If any approach is taken -intentionally, or otherwise- allowing for widespread viral transmission, then, as in New York City, the wave of contagion will apparently dissipate in a number of weeks.&nbsp;Accordingly, those sites currently subject to a “delayed first wave” will likely be through it and watching it recede in 6-8 weeks, give or take.</p>\r\n
    <p>To reiterate, we have no evidence to date of a “second wave.”&nbsp;A sudden “return” of this virus in the fall seems obviated by its continuous activity now, during the summer.&nbsp;We cannot know, of course, but it seems to me we can be hopeful that this contagion is the single, great inundation it has shown itself to be- before it recedes into the background noise of infectious disease epidemiology.&nbsp;</p>\r\n
    <p>There are more and more very encouraging indications of widespread, native resistance to this virus - to one degree or another.&nbsp;Recent studies suggest&nbsp;<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/25/coronavirus-cases-10-times-larger/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">case counts an order of magnitude higher than documented</a>&nbsp;to date (i.e., not 4 million cases in the United States, but 40 million), the vast majority of them asymptomatic or too mild to note. &nbsp;Others highlight the probability that as many as half of those exposed to COVID-19 don’t get infected at all, owing to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">partial immunity conferred by prior coronavirus exposures</a>.</p>\r\n
    <p>Such indications were&nbsp;<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/covid-hope-consternation-david-l-katz-md-mph-facpm-facp-faclm/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">present in the global patterns all along</a>.&nbsp;They do not suggest a complete or perfect immunity- they imply a partial resistance that makes infection less severe, and less likely, with “average” exposures.&nbsp;Reports of severe disease in young, healthy health professionals likely indicate how such partial resistance may be overcome with intense exposure- which in turn argues for the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/mask-covid-cacophony-david-l-katz-md-mph-facpm-facp-faclm/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">utility of masks</a>&nbsp;and distancing to minimize the viral exposure doses&nbsp;most of us encounter.</p>\r\n
    <p>The combination of enormous numbers of undocumented, asymptomatic cases; of a high percentage of the exposed remaining uninfected; of rising prevalence of detectable immunity; and of some immunity achieved in ways our lab tests do not routinely measure (i.e.,&nbsp;<a href="https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/07/15/new-data-on-t-cells-and-the-coronavirus" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">reactive T cells and secretory IgA</a>, without production of IgM or IgG, for those concerned with such particulars)- seemingly put us monumentally closer to herd immunity than we have acknowledged.&nbsp;If this data aggregation is what it seems, we are weeks away from this pandemic being all but over- and we will have the relative protection of herd immunity (except in any parts of the world that stay in strict lock down) long before the advent of a vaccine.</p>\r\n
    <p>Less speculative than the end of the pandemic is the accounting of its toll among us to date.&nbsp;We now have a monumental and indisputable volume of data from all around the world confirming what the earliest views of the pandemic suggested: there are&nbsp;<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/proposed-framework-risk-based-interdiction-david/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">massive risk differentials</a>&nbsp;associated with COVID19.&nbsp;The elderly and frail are at extreme risk, especially the residents of long-term care facilities; the elderly but hale are at elevated risk; the chronically ill but not elderly are at elevated risk; the young and healthy are at low risk, very low risk, or- when under 30, in good health, and not subject to extreme exposures- even vanishingly remote risk.&nbsp;</p>\r\n
    <p>But let’s be clear: any level of risk is more than zero.&nbsp;With a sufficiently high exposure dose, even young healthy immune systems can be overwhelmed.&nbsp;We must guard against distorted thinking about risk.&nbsp;For the “all clear” to sound, we do not need there to be zero risk related to COVID; we simply need COVID-specific risks to fall at or below the level of other risks we willingly encounter in our daily routines.&nbsp;None of us has ever lived through a day with a zero risk of injury or death.&nbsp;All that is required to be at non-zero risk of dying today, is living today; the pandemic does not alter that inalienable fact.</p>\r\n
    <p>We have no reliable basis to predict total COVID mortality, and never did.&nbsp;This is not because we are ignorant about this virus, although of course we are, still climbing the steep part of the learning curve.&nbsp;Rather, this is because our policies may change with mortality predictions, and those policies may in turn cause actual mortality figures to change.&nbsp;In other words, a sanguine prediction about fatalities may invite cavalier policies, which in turn- allow far greater fatality rates.&nbsp;In a tragic twist, these are self-unfulfilling prophecies.</p>\r\n
    <p>We also cannot yet say what the mortality toll of the pandemic will prove to be, and won’t know for as long as several years.&nbsp;Why?&nbsp;Because in the United States, without a pandemic, about&nbsp;<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/coronavirus-casualties-context-do-we-dare-discuss-david/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">8,000 people die of miscellaneous causes daily</a>.&nbsp;Those deaths are, of course, highly (but not fully) concentrated among the old and sick, exactly as COVID deaths are.&nbsp;What, then, is the overlap? &nbsp;To what extent is the pandemic adding to total deaths in a given year, and to what extent is it shifting the cause of death but not the toll?&nbsp;No one can say yet, and only time will change that.</p>\r\n
    <p>In children, the fatality risk from COVID-19 is&nbsp;less than that associated with the commute to school by car or bus.&nbsp;We could have reopened schools had we not bungled the reopening overall.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/epic-pandemic-mismanagement-how-why-david/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">But we have</a>, and schools really cannot be opened anywhere viral transmission is uncontrolled.&nbsp;However, if the U.S. is now destined to “ride out the wave” it inadvertently released upon itself, transmission rates are apt to be low and falling in 6-8 weeks, suggesting that schools could be opened safely soon- just not quite at the customary time.</p>\r\n
    <p>We have missed much, but perhaps not yet every, opportunity to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.truehealthinitiative.org/covid/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">minimize the total harms</a>&nbsp;of this pandemic by means of risk-stratified interdiction.&nbsp;As the virus circulates widely, complete lockdowns that come in time will obligate populations to crouch behind that levee, waiting for relief in the form of a vaccine; while those that come too late will simply add the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/08/07/unemployment-benefits-more-than-half-americans-fear-job-losses/3301149001/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">insults of lockdown</a>&nbsp;to the unfettered injuries of the virus.&nbsp;There are, clearly, locations that suffered the worst of both, the very antithesis of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.truehealthinitiative.org/covid/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">total harm minimization</a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>\r\n
    <p>The alternative to such unappealing options is to choreograph&nbsp;<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/covid-con-tempo-contagion-waves-cowabunga-david/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">waves of our own</a>: waves of return to something like normalcy, sequenced in accord with&nbsp;<a href="https://everisthealth.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">our personal risk</a>.&nbsp;A rise in case counts is unimportant if cases are mild; a concomitant rise in hospitalizations means we are failing to protect those who cannot be exposed.&nbsp;We know more than enough to distinguish these populations- but to date, have implemented almost no policy choreography predicated on this crucial intelligence.</p>\r\n
    <p>Finally, there is the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-two-pandemics-better-than-one-covid19-opportunity-david/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">one, true opportunity in this crisis</a>- the chance to advance the state of health for the population at large.&nbsp;Risk for bad COVID outcomes is related to age we cannot change, and&nbsp;<a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32620181/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">personal health status we generally can</a>.&nbsp;The impact on acute COVID risk of personal health improvement by means of diet and lifestyle&nbsp;<a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.21.20159350v1" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">can be very substantial</a>, while the long-term contributions of lifestyle as medicine to years in life and life in years are apt to be at least as great.&nbsp;Getting healthy during the pandemic is both a robust, acute defense, and a gift that keeps on giving.</p>\r\n
    <p>Getting healthy now&nbsp;<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vDaQOy7ML38" target="_blank" rel="noopener">should be a national priority</a>, a cultural priority, a corporate priority.&nbsp;Absent any such sensible policy, it should be a personal priority.&nbsp;Either way, reduction in COVID risk can begin with one walk displacing the couch,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.dietid.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">one meal of wholesome foods displacing junk</a>.&nbsp;Benefits accrue and rise over time.</p>\r\n
    <p>I guess there has been one other “opportunity” in the pandemic: the chance to watch the Broadway smash,&nbsp;<em>Hamilton</em>, live streamed on television.&nbsp;The show is as disquieting as it is riveting.&nbsp;The plot, one part education for every part entertainment, tells us in its uniquely dazzling fashion that even our most iconic history is subject to distortion.&nbsp;So much of what we call “history” is really just… “story,” told by those who controlled the narrative, until someone else did.&nbsp;Much of what we comfortably believe is wrong, to one degree or another.</p>\r\n
    <p>That disquiet is amplified while living through this stretch of indelible history, watching it be&nbsp;<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/covid-contagion-caricature-david-l-katz-md-mph-facpm-facp-faclm/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">refracted and disfigured</a>&nbsp;through the diverse lenses of ideology even as it plays out around us.&nbsp;Absent a unified devotion to epidemiology ahead of ideology, we seem destined not only to mistake our responses to this pandemic, but to mismake the very history of it.&nbsp;I wonder what we may hope to learn from that level of folly.</p>\r\n
    </div>\r\n
    </div>
    """
  -user: Proxies\__CG__\App\Entity\User {#1092 …}
  -createdAt: DateTime @1596810930 {#1145
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  -updatedAt: DateTime @1628458566 {#1150
    date: 2021-08-08 21:36:06.0 UTC (+00:00)
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  -status: "published"
  -imageCard: Proxies\__CG__\App\Entity\File {#1184 …}
  -ImageHeader: Proxies\__CG__\App\Entity\File {#1184 …}
  -featured: false
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  -clicks: 1687
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  -metakey: "COVID-19 and the Mismaking of History: Where Are We, Really?"
  -metadesc: "News reports refer routinely now to “second waves” of the COVID-19 pandemic.\u{A0}Such references, in turn, invoke\u{A0}prior pandemics\u{A0}subject to such ebb and flow.\u{A0}"
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  -publishedAt: DateTime @1596810930 {#1147
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AppController :: renderFooter (token = f34db2)

Key Value
_controller
"App\Controller\AppController::renderFooter"
_format
"html"
_locale
"en"
_stopwatch_token
"4711ad"

CookieController :: renderCookie (token = 5f9d8f)

Key Value
_controller
"App\Controller\CookieController::renderCookie"
_format
"html"
_locale
"en"
_stopwatch_token
"bac11f"