· Talk of a new commodity super-cycle may be premature · Once GDP growth returns to trend, commodity demand will moderate · Fiscal and monetary relief are key to maintaining growth and demand · Structural changes in energy demand will prove more persistent

· China was the first country to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic

· As global stock markets continue to rise, commentators talk of a bubble · Shorter-term indicators suggest the markets have run ahead of fundamentals · Expectations about the speed of economic recovery from the pandemic remain key · Even a slight moderation of fiscal and monetary expansion could precipitate a crash

· As global stock markets continue to rise, commentators talk of a bubble · Longer-term indicators present mixed signals about valuation · Expectations about the speed of economic recovery from the pandemic are key · A recovery in productivity growth relies on saving and investment in innovation

· 2020 has been a torrid year for stock markets globally · Fiscal and monetary stimulus rescued investors from a brutal bear-market · Digital transformation has accelerated and fortunes of the technology sector with it · With mass-vaccination still some way off, 2021 will see many trends continue

With US elections over and a vaccine in sight, financial market uncertainty has declined Rotation has seen a resurgence in those stocks battered by the onset of the pandemic Monetary and fiscal spending will continue until inflation returns November has been an interesting month for financial markets around the world. The US Presidential election came and went and with its passing financial market uncertainty diminished.

The Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated several economic trends.

· The Federal Reserve has changed the emphasis of their dual mandate · Inflation targeting will become more flexible in the long-run · Full employment has become the Bank’s priority · Asset markets will be the immediate beneficiaries

Defining a depression as opposed to a recession is open to wide interpretation Recessions are a natural part of the credit cycle Depressions are destroyers of a nation’s wealth Fiscal policy can help ease the pain of ‘creative destruction’ but long-term planning is key

Monetary and fiscal stimulus to ameliorate the effect of the pandemic has exceeded $9trln Stock markets have recovered, although most are below their February highs The combined supply and demand shock of Covid-19 is structural A value-based investment approach is critical to navigate the transition